Over the last four years, beef prices in the United States haven’t just risen, they’ve broken records. From drought-driven herd collapses to surging export demand and new tariffs reshaping imports, the American beef market has undergone one of the most volatile periods in modern history.
Here’s what the data actually shows and what’s really driving the spike.
Beef Prices Have Hit Record Highs
National beef prices have climbed sharply since 2021. According to the Consumer Price Index, some beef cuts were 25% more expensive by late 2021 compared to the year before, making meat one of the largest contributors to food inflation (TIME reporting, 2021). Prices continued rising into 2022 and 2023, and by September 2025, ground beef averaged $6.32 per pound, a 13% jump in one year.
Overall, beef prices in August 2025 were 14% higher than August 2024 (BLS CPI data).
This surge didn’t happen randomly, it followed a perfect storm in U.S. cattle supply.
1. The U.S. Cattle Herd Has Collapsed to 1950s Levels
The biggest driver of high beef prices is simple: the country doesn’t have enough cattle.
By January 1, 2024, the U.S. cattle inventory fell to 87.2 million head, the smallest New Year herd since 1951 (USDA Cattle Report). Even more alarming: the breeding herd, the mother cows that produce the calves, dropped to 28.2 million, a 73-year low.
Why does this matter?
Fewer breeding cows → fewer calves → smaller future beef supply → higher retail prices.
Economists note that even as supply collapsed, consumer demand stayed strong, allowing beef to surge to historic highs.
2. Severe Drought Forced Ranchers to Liquidate Their Herds
The shrinkage wasn’t voluntary.
Beginning in 2020 and intensifying through 2021–2022, extreme drought hit Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and the entire Western cattle belt. By 2022:
Over 50% of U.S. pasture and rangeland was rated poor or very poor (USDA Crop Progress Report).
Ranchers couldn’t afford hay.
Water sources dried up.
Feedlots filled early as ranchers offloaded cows they could no longer sustain.
In both 2021 and 2022, cow and heifer slaughter surged, a clear sign of herd liquidation. This temporarily boosted beef production in 2022, but it gutted future supply.
By 2023–2024, the result was inevitable: less beef on the market, higher prices, and years of rebuilding ahead.
3. Feed Costs Exploded and Producers Couldn’t Keep Up
Even ranchers who wanted to maintain their herds couldn’t afford to.
In 2022:
Corn averaged $6.76 per bushel, with months above $7 (USDA ERS).
Hay prices rose 45% year-over-year.
Total feed costs to finish a steer jumped 22% (Iowa State University estimates).
Producers couldn’t justify feeding expensive corn to cattle when margins collapsed, so they sold animals early or culled them completely, accelerating the supply decline.
4. Labor Shortages and Processing Bottlenecks Choked the System
The meatpacking industry, dominated by four companies, struggled to maintain capacity through 2021–2022. Plants:
Could not fill shifts due to pandemic-era labor shortages.
Offered $3,000+ bonuses and still couldn’t staff up.
Saw slowed chain speeds and backlogs.
The White House accused processors of price gouging, while processors blamed labor.
Regardless of who was right, the effect was real: less beef processed, supply tightened, and prices rose.
5. Trade Shocks: Record Exports + Surging Imports + New Tariffs
Exports tightenethe domestic supply
2022 was a historic year:
The U.S. exported 3.4 billion pounds of beef, an all-time record (USMEF).
China’s demand surged over 60% after market access expanded.
Japan and South Korea also increased purchases.
More U.S. beef shipped overseas meant less supply for American grocery stores, pushing domestic prices higher.
Imports surged from Brazil
Beginning in 2020, Brazil became a top source of imported beef:
U.S. imports from Brazil spiked 500% year-over-year by early 2022 (USDA GATS).
China temporarily banned Brazilian beef over animal health concerns, and Brazil redirected supply to the U.S.
These imports helped stabilize ground beef prices, temporarily.
2025: The U.S. imposes a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef
In mid-2025, the U.S. slapped a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef imports.
Experts warned:
This will reduce imported supply at the exact moment the U.S. herd is at a 70-year low.
Translation: tariffs may push beef prices even higher in the short term.
6. Federal Policy Shaped the Landscape
Several policy decisions directly influenced the crisis:
USDA Emergency Relief Payments
Congress and USDA delivered nearly $1 billion in drought assistance to ranchers (ELRP).
This kept many in business but didn’t stop herd decline.
Competition Reforms
The Biden Administration launched a $1 billion initiative to expand independent meatpacking capacity and tighten Packers & Stockyards Act rules.
“Product of USA” Label Reform
USDA moved to ensure that only cattle born and raised in the U.S. can be labeled “Product of USA,” addressing packer practices that undercut domestic ranchers.
Tariffs
As noted, 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports will tighten supply further in 2025.
So What Isn’t Causing the Beef Price Spike?
Claims blaming immigrants or “smuggled diseased cattle,” like the viral Fox News segment circulating this week, are not supported by data.
Primary and secondary sources (USDA, BLS, ERS, USMEF, university extension economists) identify the real drivers:
Herd contraction
Drought
Feed inflation
Processing bottlenecks
Export surges
Import tariffs
Supply chain pressures
None cite immigrant cattle-smuggling as a meaningful economic driver of beef inflation.
The Bottom Line
America’s beef price surge isn’t a mystery, it’s the predictable result of a four-year chain reaction:
Drought → Feed costs → Herd liquidation → Low supply → High demand → Record prices.
Layered on top:
Labor shortages + record exports + tariffs + supply chain stress.
Beef prices will likely remain elevated into 2026 and 2027. Rebuilding a cattle herd takes years, not months.
The political blame-shifting? That’s the only part rising faster than the prices.
